Probability
The language every quant question is asked in. Learn to put a number on how likely something is and what it is worth.
- Chance as a numberPutting a number between 0 and 1 on how likely something is.
- Expected valueWhat a bet is worth on average.
- Risk and spreadWhy two bets with the same average are not the same bet.
- When information changes the oddsConditional probability: updating once you know something.
- CountingHow many ways can it happen? The start of every probability.
- The binomial distributionThe odds of k wins in n tries.
- Bayes' ruleWhat a positive test really tells you.
- Expected values add upThe most useful shortcut in probability.
- How risk adds upRisk grows with the square root, not the count.
- The law of large numbersWhy averages can be trusted, eventually.
- Markov chainsA model where tomorrow depends only on today.
- Track quizFive questions. Get four right to finish the track.